AltaVista PVT Results
AltaVista is an independent, civil society-run Parallel Vote Tabulation initiative, designed to produce a verifiable, scientifically accurate estimation of the national vote count from the July 28th, 2024 Venezuelan elections.
The numbers below are a weighted projection of the national vote share results. They are extrapolated from the official vote count receipts recorded following the completion of voting at a representative sample of local voting centres. The projected Vote Share and Margin of Error calculations are updated in real time as source data is received and validated.
The sampling, projection and margin of error methodology have all been independently validated by leading academic experts (1, 2, 3) and are pre-registered at the Open Science Foundation, along with all underlying data necessary to replicate and validate the sample selection and voting estimates. The methodology is detailed here. Note that each candidate's vote share projection has its own margin of error to statistically account for the variability of each separate vote total.
Original photographs of the official vote tally receipts from the representative sample voting centres are available below for verification.
Results
| Candidate | Vote Share | |
|---|---|---|
| González | 66.12% | |
| Maduro | 31.39% | |
| Other | 2.49% |
Results Per Stratum
The AltaVista sample uses official historical Venezuelan voting data to divide all local voting centres into 7 equally sized strata, ordered by least to most supportive of the current regime. The sample stations are evenly selected from all 7 support strata, and the national projections are weighted in live time to reflect the distribution of available data across all the strata. All the official historical vote results used to create these strata are publicly available as part of the AltaVista project documentation here.
In the chart to the right, you can see the current projected total results and specific margin of error calculations (at 95% confidence) for each of the 7 support strata.
Original Source Data for Verification
Below are the original photos and information derived from the vote tabulation receipts, printed by the official voting machines following the completion of voting at each sample centre. Each receipt identifies the source voting table and centre, which correspond to the pre-registered list of representative sample voting centres (which is available here).
Click the thumbnail image in the left column to see an enlarged version of the original photo. How to read and interpret the QR codes
The full table contents can be downloaded as a CSV file here.